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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Debates cover identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."